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Managers standing behind a large generative artificial intelligence Companies are quickly demanding that their products will switch a huge number of workers. Anthropic The whole of Dario Amodey made headlines in May saying that generation ai could erase Half of jobs at the entrance level of input level In the next few years. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in April to want to write a half of the company code in the following year. And Americans believe in that – recently Pev Poll 64% of Americans are found expecting less jobs thanks to AI.
In this environment, it is easy to see research on AI-endangered jobs and start panic. When Microsoft’s researchers presented report in July with indirect job lists with tasks that most and least overlapped with tasks that could do the AI gene, it encouraged storage Among those whose jobs were at the top of the chart. But dig a little deeper and less need translators, historians and others to care if they will replace them – unless human employers, except it easier for AIs, deciding so.
“I think it’s useful for people to focus on tasks, unlike doing business,” Darrell M. West, an elderly associate at the Innovation Technology Center on the mountain institution, said to the Cnet. “There may not be so many whole jobs that are eliminated. There will be a lot of tasks that will be eliminated.”
Microsoft research that ranked occupations by AI overlap gave it exactly a point, even if it was not key points.
“It is tempting to conclude that they will have a high overlap with activities and they will experience job loss or earnings, because our data does not include downstream business influences of new technology, which is very difficult to predict and is often written.
Even the biggest names in the generative AI will, if pushed, admit to the uncertainty. I’m an Openai all of Altman, speaking with Theo von in a A recent podcast lookHe said that it was too long to imagine that people could have the work of the Executive Director and the Podcaster of AI. “I think it’s very difficult to predict how something develops or predicts exactly what jobs of the future are,” Altman said.
There are dangers to think that AI do what really can’t. Here are the views of two jobs listed by Microsoft report to overlap the most with tasks and can do: translators and historians.
Translating is more than finding the right words
The Spanish is the official language in the whole or part of more than 20 countries around the world. This means that there are more than 20 different language variations – and even more when considering local and regional versions. Andy Benzo understands how important they may be important are. “I speak argentinian,” she told me. “I don’t speak” Spanish “. There is no” Spanish “.”
As a legal translator and president-chooses American translators AssociationBenzo must understand not only the basic Spanish words, but culture – and legal culture – behind them. Benzo, a lawyer, not only changes words and sentences from one language to another – meaning must be right. These subtitles can have serious consequences for people or entities involved in legal proceedings and it is crucial to mean exactly.
The translators work more than just convert and convert documents. Medical translators help people communicate with doctors and nurses to ensure that they are properly worried. These are literally life and death situations. Financial transactions that move from one language to another need to be clear, or in which one can be in question or life.
Professional translators are generally experts not only in language, but in its specific field, Benzo said. “You pay us for what we know,” she said. “We say what we do is right.”
Translation tools runs generate and become all skilled in helping someone to communicate in a language that do not understand. You can hold your phone and let it be interpreted between you and a person who does not understand any language you understand what demonstrated iOS 26 and Google’s Gemini. But professional translators and translators specialize in obtaining things right right. You don’t want a translation that is very guessed – what is really everything you get from AI – when your money or life is on the line. You want a translation that understands the shades that differ between language. And you want someone to be responsible if it’s wrong.
“If ai wrong, who will be responsible for that?” Said Benzo.
The language is also not static. While the AI industry is moving fast, the language is changing even faster. Every day, someone somewhere finds a new way to phrase the idea. For example, the Cambridge Dictionary, only Added words Like “skibids” and “broligarchy”, which AI with an obsolete dataset for training may not be able to understand. But man, properly dressed, can continue with these subtle adaptations.
“The language develops all the time,” Benzo said. “The language belongs to the people. No one is the chief of language. The only one who can perceive shades of language is human.”
History is more than just a story about the same old story
Sarah Weicksel is a historian whose research is hard to find in books because it does not apply to words. He studies clothes, not the way you are online online. Its work (including a coming book) He examines the physical clothes of the American Civil Age and how they reflect the economic and political circumstances of time. Studying 160-year-old clothes involved digging in parts of archives that rarely go to the museum display. (When the clothes go to the exhibit, they are often there in a short period because they quickly decayed.) He also included looking through diaries and other historical documents and seek references to important, variable world, but also the variable.
“My research process very gathered pieces of puzzle,” Veickesel told me, the Executive Director of the American Historical Association.
But can not the AI model view the Museum Collection and read all those civil war diaries? Not really. The work of historians is not to find obviously, but to find a basic story that is not necessarily on the surface. Veickel looked at the clothes to consider how the coat cut can help someone to be an upright or texture of different fabrics. “And he can’t touch and feel things for me,” she said.
The more importantly, Veickel approached his research trying to answer and understand special issues that may not have been set before. It is the core of historians: performing judgment and creativity to detect new interpretations of the past.
Read more: Chatgpt can’t fix everything. Here are 11 times you will regret using
Weicksel said that research is like Microsoft’s study, which was watching that he could handle individual tasks that did a professional historian, does not cover the whole picture. Yes, historians maintain and regulate documents and provide information to people, said, but these tasks “are not the core of what is historian,” she said.
“We are not just a set of tasks we meet and produce discrete things,” Veicksel said. “We are very able to synthesize and contextualize and bring judgment, but also creativity to these questions we ask”.
Large language The model can give you a pretty good report on the historical event. Ask Chatgpt For a threshold violation report 1618. years and you will probably get a pretty good summary – unless it is hallucinates And confuses with other times people kicked out of the window in Prague 1419. and 1483. years. But to expect the AI can perform the work of historians because it can summarize or analyze a historical event, becomes sister. AI can summarize historical events because it stands on the shoulder of historians who dug the facts and wrote down what happened.
The study of history helps our understanding of the past, but a machine trained to follow past trends may not find unexpected or help us avoid the same mistakes.
“Excellent historical works are neither predictable nor obvious,” Veicksel said. “It makes them transformative. This cannot be replaced by technology trained to reproduce existing patterns.”
Automation has affected business as long as there are tools. Artificial intelligence could improve automation types in some areas improving robotics, such as this robot in Beijing that can do the work of the human seller (or a vending machine).
What kind of job can he do?
There is a difference between tasks and can also help tasks. Large language models have shown that they are skilled in writing software code, which led to the proliferation of “vibra coding”, in which the role of man is more to appear and solve problems, while ai has most of the work. AI is also more beneficial in roles such as customer service, where racial requirements can be handled with a chatbot or something, leaving only more complicated people.
Recently paper Researchers at Stanford University, who has been refused to be employed among young people, early careers in a particular automation industry, also found that those who refuse primarily in roles in which tasks could be automated.
“While we find employment decreases for young workers where and primarily automates work, we find employment in occupations in which and use of most augmentation,” where it can be faster, without replacing them, they wrote them. “These finds are in accordance with automated use and replacement for work, while augmentative uses no.”
The possession of the work is already happening in places where routine tasks can be automated, the West told me. Many layoffs occurred among software developers, because it can be done quite reliable in ai. “Most jobs will affect AI, but there will be any work to be replaced,” West said. “People should just look at certain tasks associated with any business and just think about what automation options are.”
AI’s work job effects will decide people, not potential
Most importantly, no one knows what and the effect will be in the economy and from now on several years. The Chatgpt has become only the name of the household in 2022. years. The possibilities of these tools and our understanding of what they can and cannot be changed all the time.
But the effect of technology on jobs does not necessarily have to happen because of what it can do. It will happen because of what business leaders and managers believe I can do so. Currently, many executives seem to be more worried that it disappears to reduce the job and save money using ai than worried that AI will not be able to do the job. Clarna, for example, said that 2024. year that her and assistant could do the work of 700 users for users, but He changed his mind Earlier this year, employing more people after not received the results he expected.
There is already a doubt about the effect of corporate initiatives for addressed AI. July study MIT researchers found that 95% and pilots on companies do not return investments – largely because and the tools do not learn, grow and develop as human employees.
“Corporate leaders can finish laying too many people because of their optimism about AI and can eventually find out that there is an important element that is missing,” West said. “The aspect of the human judgment will be critical.”
The human element – whether it is a judgment, creativity or culture – it can be shown what and the tool cannot do the job, even if it seems to be able to do all the tasks on paper.
