Gas pipeline signals subjection China

How Russia The Milestone in the Agreement constructs the power of pipelines Siberia 2, action signals increasing dependence on China and the Moscow weakened position in bilateral relationship.

Pool / AFP via Getty Images

Spectacular displays at Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Tianjin are carefully made showcase Evolution of the KSI Jinping in the Beijing Political Block that weighs towards Rivals Washington. The US Administration accepts the “first” agent “and using tariffs as an external policy of ram for the search. Meanwhile, President Trump can be on something in that writing “Please give my warmest greetings to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong UN while you are convinced against the United States of America.”

Founded in 2001. year, SCO was often difficult on statements, but light on the substance. This year, however, she marked a significant shift, with Member States, led by China, which is the economic competition received by the basic path to challenge the US Central Post-World War. The Chinese leader has promised Open Chinese Beidou Global Navigation System TAbout SCO members to compete with GPS. More importantly, XI has announced launch SCO Development BankThe initiative supported in China, aimed at financing infrastructure in Eurozia. This project was debt in works – Moscow blocked it, raised the idea that the region was his yard.

Now Moscow reversed her position, embraced Peking’s initiative. This is the latest in the long line of Kremlin concessions in all one-way Sino-Russian relationship. Russia needs China more than China needs Russia. Both parties are conscious, and Beijing is the desirant deepening of Russian strategic addiction. Moscow’s weapons and energy protectors pressed that he had earlierly placed Russia into position to soon win in Ukraine after his invasion of 2022. He decisively postponed China. Instead, KSI let Moscow bleed so that Beijing could provide a better negotiating position. This dynamic is in every sphere of Sino and Russian cooperation. It is now the most obvious in energy. Russia used the top to advance on their leading power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline in China. However, reading between lines, it is clear that this job is another sign of Beijing’s asshole.

Power Siberia 2 Pipelines and Russian Strategy

Energy bids announced around the SCO Summit revealed the real price of the Russian Swivel East. Just before the meeting, Gazprom signed a memorandum With Mongolia confirming the role of Ulaanbaataatar as a transit country for POS-2. For days later, General Manager of Gazprom Alexei Miller discovered “Legal Binding of Memorandum” with Chinese CNPC to build a pipeline. POS-2 will deliver 50 billion cubik Gas annually from Western Siberia to North China via Mongolia. Together with the expansion of power simbers 1 (from 38 to 44 BCM) and less distant eastern road (up to 12 BCM to 2027), annual annual gas flows in China can access 100 bcmtotal about two-thirds its former European export quantities. But there is a catch, and this is not the advantage of Russia.

By transporting gas from the field in the Western Siberia through the power of Siberia 2, while spreading power is simply sibira, Moscow can replace large part of the ships that originally went to Europe.

S & P Global Roomdicit Insights

Siberian pipelines are more than infrastructure. They are a life order for the country that has been interrupted with its greatest energy market. Sanctions and European gas supply diversification are adoption Russian European Gas trade to faction of its previous volume. POS-2 allows Russia to catch up Western Siberian gas once appointed for Europe. Politically, it is signed that Moscow has left hope in resetting west. Konstantin Kosačev, Deputy President of the Council for the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Committee for Foreign Affairs of the Council, put it Blue: “The Western direction is recognized as without a connection, and Moscow no longer expects to be in Europe any shreeding in Europe.” Russia can also be cut off from its 300-year-old engagement, which began when the car Peter was famous to “broke the window” to Europe, beating the Swedish empire and signed a contract on North Today in 1721. years. Years.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, who first proposed the west pipeline in China 2006. years, POS-2 is a personal project that has been delayed for a long time. Talks paused in 2008. years when Gazprom and Beijing Failed to agree about mutually acceptable conditions. Instead, Russia Built POS-1 After the crime aspassion of 2014, and the fuel delivery in China in 2019 began. Years. From 2022. year, Russia He has repeatedly called China To behave quickly to save its economy from unavoidable approaches that come from the collapse of their western market. China, on his side, shelled several times, rather he puts more concessions from Moscow instead. The new POS-2 Agreement revives the Putin’s earlier vision, but now of an emergency, not the choice.

Russia bears costs like being aforement

Analysts estimate POS-2 will cost Approximately $ 25 billion to construct. You want to show the swing, Gazprom already started construction Stretch 410 kilometers, assigned to a tender value of 2023. Years 11.9 billion rubles (about $ 125 million). However, unlike many Chinese overseas projects, Beijing will not fund the Russian section. The load falls on Gazprom, whose recent financial effect was asymal. Russian consumers will also feel a finger. Home gas prices They are set to climb For more than 50% for three years, they effectively subsidize export to China.

Russia will bear the costs of building pipelines and provide gas on discount on China, limiting the benefits of the planned route.

Energy intelligence

Prices remain opaque, but sloping in Beijing benefit. Under POS-1, Gazprom is Already earn 45-50% less per cubic meter than he did from Europe. For POS-2, Beijing supposedly pushed It is difficult to pay rates near subsidized domestic prices of Russia. Pectorač received that the agreement has offered “competitive advantages for our Chinese friends;” Although he tried to call the development positively.

The Chinese negotiating style was consistently slow, methodical and relentless in searching for better terms, how to testify to POS-2 conversations more than a decade. Only after the Russian European market failed, Beijing agreed to move forward. Even then, the details remain unclear, as a Memorandum project Later leaves the final formula for formula and finance price Date.

The official messages of Chinese emphasized a better hand that Beijing brought to the table. While Russian state media decoon Breaktrough, Beijing’s initial statements for a brief mention 20 bilateral documents on cooperation in several sectors. Speaker, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Guo Jiakun refused to confirm Prophet POS-2.

Russia has become a younger partner

For Moscow, the pipeline of cement its subordinate role in its partnership with China. This is a direct turnaround Moscow-Beijing Axis Under Stalin and Maoom, when the SSSR was clearly on top. Once, Russian Elites were considered a swivel east with great caution, preferring Europe for education, investment, rest and more. However, the Russian aggression and resulting sanctions closed those paths. Now the Kremlin is very leaning on Beijing not only for trade, but also for components for military equipment and diplomatic cover. In return, he accepts Chinese leadership within the SCO, recognizing economic concepts on energy and tolerating other puzzle status.

This is reinforced by a Chinese concession not related to gas: New 30-day visa regime for Russian citizens. While Beijing dialed it as goodwill gesture, it further underlines the growing imbalance, and the Moscow projects accepting limited profitability and Beijing that expands entry without visas that will benefit from visas. The contrast is a study in asymmetry. Moscow enters tangible costs in return for symbolic gestures from Beijing that will eventually help fill Chinese cash registers.

SCO Summit and POS-2 Agreements reveal the path of Chinese protection of Russian foreign policy and its growing addiction. Moscow has effectively closed the door in Europe and bought a ticket in one direction in Beijing, without enough lever that it has equally from the Chinese engagement, such as participation in its higher technical or investment. POS-2 Offer can provide markets for pissed west on western Siberian gas, but in deep discounts and with a severe financial carrier. Russia is also connected to the Beijing orbit and reduces its ability to maintain independent foreign policy.