Slow home construction and sales with constant footsteps

For the rest of 2025. years, interest rates for mortgages do not like to change a lot, although the new construction and new homes will continue the trend of falls.

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Over the summer, Moody’s grade issued a summary and report On shifts on the housing market. The analysis considered several editions from companies and agencies that regularly report on movement on the housing market. According to S & P Corelogic Case-Shiller and Federal Funding Agencies (FHFA) in the United States, 0.4% reduced in April from the previous month. This data was published in June. The house sales also fell by 0.7% in May and rejected 6.3% from May 2024. according to the Census Bureau for Census Census.

Homebilderers are returning to a new construction as a market conditions slow. About 6-7% from last year begins, while it also slowed multifamily construction. And interest rates seem to stay on their current levels about 6.5%. According to Moody’s, these trends signal the weaker growth of the US population for the rest of 2025. Years. I asked authors analyzes a few questions about the data and direction of the market.

I quoted part of Moody’s document, then a question. The quote and question are in italics, then the answers of the author analysis.

“However, active ads in many other countries and markets are still limited to the price and risk limitation, as they are dynamically installed that they are dynamically to move in 2020-22. It is a total to convey to the dynamically as if are dynamic to move during 2020-22. modestly higher nationally during the last months. “

Can you work out where it could go based on other variables? If interest rates fall, will it break through market stagnation in which people who are people who are held on their smaller mortgages? Will prices fall far enough to motivate more movements regardless of rates? Will both combine to cause a large increase in demand?

“Uncertainty about the time strip and pace of potential recovery in the US existing amounts of home sales are raised by part due to major interest rates. But the slowdown in macroeconomic conditions also increases uncertainty.”

“We did not see the increase in demand of customers last September when the 30-year mortgage rates touched 6%, which indicates that demand cannot be changed, or at least they are not superior to market, especially in areas in northeast, especially in areas.”

Andrew MacDonaldVice President and Senior Analyst at Moody Ratings (coverage area includes real estate meduments)

“Generally, accessibility is significantly limited, so that the demand is unlikely in close time. The decrease of interest rate and price drop to be modest, so it will only be modest. We also saw the weather home parts also became ahead.”

“If demand is significantly weakened, probability that the probability of a home price will decrease. However, the price resistance in the house has proven to be quite strong during this cycle, so that significant depreciation in the homeland is not expected in a close phenomenon.”

Natalia GluschukVice President and Higher Credit Officer on Moody Rating (coverage area includes home builders)

“Meanwhile, homebuilders retreated modestly (see evidence 5) in response to the Soft Market this year.”

Given the possibility of moving in demand caused by lower prices and surplus offers, don’t we see an increase in production? Will the market respond with more family or multiple? Will there be lags in production that will increase inflation on the housing market?

“We expect to try demand when accessibility also improves lower interest. Significant demand is not expected to improve significantly, so that it will be improved in one family market, so that it will improve at a request in one family structure. Measured.”

Natalia Gluschuk

“Slow initial home and permits will help restrain any erosion of home values, although new unique digits in relation to annual falls of about 2% in the last two years, because builders rely on incentives and shorten temporary mortgage interest.”

Andrew MacDonald

Where does this indicate inflation in the housing market? Do you suggest that you see lower prices in the years? Is this, when you pair with lower prices, create a demand rise? If builders pull back, they will not see that prices climb?

“Builders retire a little in response to weakening demand. But because accessibility is so heavy, builders offer incentives to customers to encourage the house in the last few years, and this year’s incentives are higher than before”

Natalia Gluschuk

“There are a number of factors that are pushed in different directions, so that our forecasts were a combination of large quantities of buildings or speculative investments, and we cannot expect that possible, and we are not expecting a significant decline in certain markets.”

Jodi OldVice President and Senior Analyst at Moody Rating (coverage area includes MBS in a structured financial group)

“If pricing further weakens, you can see that sellers simply remove their lists until the market improves, which increases low supply.”

Andrew MacDonald