Beijing promised to “fight backwards” over the US visit of Tsai Tsai leader. But this time it is more lost

Hong Kong
CNN
–

An Expected appointment Between Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Ven and U.S. President Kevin McCarthi in California this week has caused the concentration of pressure campaign China It was launched last year when Taipei Nancy Pelosi simplified.

Beijing at the time surrounded the island of democracy With unprecedented military drills – firing multiple projectiles in surrounding water and sending dozens of war plačaran is accelerated at a sensitive middle line that is division of Taiwan registries.

It is also interrupt contact With the United States in relation to numerous problems from military issues in the fight against climate change, in retaliation for what considered a violation of his sovereignty.

This time, Beijing has already threatened that “decisively fight” if the meeting on Tsai-McCarthy is progressing.

Was also slammed by Washington to allow TSAI to stop in the US while on the way to and from official visits in Central America, warning, it could lead to “Seriously” conflict between two powers.

A Defiant Tsai They put her own country, promised as they removed a 10-day trip not to play “external pressure” stop Taiwan to connect with the world and similar democracies.

But the optics of the meeting, which takes place in California, not Taiwan and its time – in a specially dueling moment in Chinese external relations and Through the presidential elections in Taiwan, who could reset his relationship with Beijing – may be carefully observed in Beijing this time or at least not escalate further, analysts say.

“This burden on China puts it free too excessive, because each overtime is further pushing in China away from the world,” Yun Sun, director of the Chinese program in the center of the Stimson Center in Washington said.

This, however, does not mean that Beijing will not carefully watch Tsai’s movements care because he calibrates his answer – and decides how much the military might flex over his meeting with American legislation in the American soil.

To perceive the Chinese system – and the potential for competitive interests within a huge bureaucracy – also makes it difficult to predict its response.

“Every time Taiwan does everything China doesn’t like, Chinese react with their own military coercion,” the sun said. But in the current situation, “they have to consider the consequences of rollover,” she added.

Expected meeting, which is the office of McCarthi announced It will be held on Wednesday, it also comes to an insecure moment in US-China relations.

Washington and Beijing struggles to stabilize their communication In the middle of tension on tenses due to problems with downs Suspecting Chinese Supervisory Balloon to Semi-speaking supply chains – Lifting the role of potential damage to that connection If Beijing flashes as when Tsai met Pelosi.

Taiwan still feels that the decline in this response last August, and Chinese military forces are now regularly realizing about what was previously informally, but largely which is in Taiwan and Taipei in Taiwanese thai in Taiwanese. The official news agency Taivana also applied Monday that Tsai will meet with McCarthi, referring to the Tsai’s presidential office.

But the meeting between the TSAY and the leader of the Republic majority in the USA House, which in second place in accordance with the Presidency, would mark another symbolic moment for Taiwan and the United States, who only lead unofficial connections.

For the Tsai, which enters the last year of its two-term presidency, “is clearly a dropstone event”, according to Ven-Ti Sung, a political scientist in the Australian National University of Taiwanese Study. “She has this picture as well as Taiwanese president who took American-Taiwanese relationships to new heights, and who … could give Taiwan almost unseen international visibility,” he said.

This increased visibility – and enhanced cooperation with the US – followed Chinese prefabricated pressure on the island, sitting less than 110 miles (177 kilometers) from the land coast.

The Chinese Communist Party claims that she is a self-governing island democracy as her despite that she never controlled and promised that the island sworn if necessary.

In the past decade, the party took concern in the last decade under the leader of KSI Jinping – and increased its permeation of economic, diplomatic and military pressure in Taiwan.

It is affected by concerns, among some in Washington, that Beijing is preparing for invasion, although the official language of Chinese language continues that the scenario is not his preferred option to achieve the required goal of “reunification”.

These are pressures – and how to support Taiwan against unilateral Peking shares – likely to be on the table when the Tsai, McCarthi and the para group are seated by the middle-aged lawmaker on Wednesday.

The Congress was a pillar of increasing American support for Taiwan in recent years. The deputies regularly visit the island and drives bipartised legislation to improve support and cooperation.

While the United States transferred their diplomatic relations with Beijing before decades, it maintains unofficial connections with Taiwan and is bonded by law to allow the democratic island to be determined.

Under the long-lasting policy of Washington “One Chinese”, the United States recognizes the position of the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China, but never officially recognized Beijing’s request on the island of 23 million.

Although McCarthi has a decade of advocations from Pelosi’s for decades in telling cinema, California is now a leading voice to bring near Beijing, and the TSAI meeting could help him help him fire that picture.

Last month, McCarthi told reporters that the Tsai meeting in the US will not affect whether he travels to Taiwan in the future – something he said earlier that he wanted to do it.

Meeting in California, in the American soil, it is widely considered that it is less likely to provoke Beijing from McCarthi Visit Taiwan.

POLOSOZI TRAVEL – The first of the legislator of that rank on the island in 25 years – generated a Fever of nationalist and anti-American rhetoric in continental china.

This time, so far, the domestic conversation in Chinese strongly controlled media spheres has been significantly dimmed.

But the stakes remain high – including Beijing – as it reacts, analysts say.

As Taiwan is preparing for the presidential elections in January, the fierce response could push voters away from the main opposition party Taiwan Kuomintang (KMT), widely seen as friendly towards Beijing.

It could now be standing with another high journey: a tour of land China from the former President Taiwan and the older KMT member of KMT Ma Iing-JeouThe first visit of the current or former Taiwanese leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War 1949. years.

Mrs. Tour is “Once in half a century the opportunity to send a reconcilable message between the two sides, Beijing should not carpet,” Sung said, a political scientist. ”

China is also an acutely aware that his actions towards Taiwan are significantly brighter Global reflector After an invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, a close diplomatic partner XI. Putin’s rhetoric over Ukraine echoes an echoes of how the XI talks about Taiwan.

Beijing recently asked to position himself as Mira Agent In this conflict – especially because it aims to fix storage in Europe.

This week, Tsai is expected to meet with McCarty, French President Macron and European Commission President of Ursula Von Der Leien will be headed to China – an important opportunity that the KSI may not want to shade the military posture.

A aggressive response also risks conflict purification with the US, not yet six months after the XI and American President Joe Biden called to improve communication during and during a Meeting face to face In Bali.

“(Less excessively aggressive answer, it would mean that Beijing does not want to escalate the tension with the US-level,” Steve Tsang said, director of Soas Chine Institute in London.

“Reset in American-Chinese relationships is not on the agenda, but the softening of tension is not outside the possibility area.”