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Turkey’s influence in Syria has expanded from falling Assad, after the HTS’s military campaign contribution and agreement with the transitional government. (Photo Mehmet Ali Ozcan / Anadolu via Getti Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
Turkey is seated at the crossroads of Europe, Russia, Caucasus and the Middle East – the main geopolitical part of the property in the eastern hemisphere. As Europe and the United States want to reduce reliance on Russian energy corridors, as well as Iranian oil and gas, Ankara moves rapidly to position as a key transit node that connects Asia and Europe. Missing significant own reserves, Turkey will use its geographical position, including Russia / Black Sea, Caucasus, Iraq, post-war Syria and access to Europe. President Recep Taiiip Erdogan balancing alliances to expand the regional impact of his country.
Combustion of Syria’s Assad mode in the hands of Turkey’s Hait Tahrir Al Sham, Derivat al Qaeda; Current war in Russia-Ukraine; and escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States has reshaped the dynamics of the region’s power. With Russia, Iran weakened, Turkey enters in – not only as a political-military player, but as logistics hubs. Understanding resuscitation attempts so far Kurdistan oil pipeline To research the routes from Azerbaijan through the project of Armenia and Iraq, Ankara pushes an ambitious campaign at three fronts of -energy transit, diplomacy and military slaughter – to enhance its geopolitical influence.
Assada is a drop: Historical turning point in Syria and Middle East
In the decade, a long-term, brutal Syrian civil war, More than 600,000 people were killedAbout 5.4 million became refugees, and almost 7 million internally displaced people. After decades of tyranny, he killed Assad kill in December 2024. years, turning a close eastern geopolitics upside down. Assad also supported Iran and Russia. Moscow is militarily outstretched in Ukraine, and Iranian air defense became naked after Israel shaped his Proxy Hezbollah, both of these regional powers They lost significantly leverages. As Russia seemed to have lost the only maritime filling pump in the Mediterranean, Iran lost the closest shia tool alli.
Turkey, on the other hand, appeared as Primary external power in post-war Syria. Ankara supported many groups of rebels, which gently united under the Syrian national army and conducted several military campaigns along their southern border to attack Kurdish militants who considered a threat to their national security.
After the Assad’s defeat, Ankara quickly crossed the signature of the agreement with the new Sirian HTS Transition Government, despite his Al-Qaeda pedigree. Although Turkey initially marked HTS terrorist groups, as well as US to country to Marco Rubio country revoke However, the mark in July 2025. Years supplied HTS advanced weapons together with a military and logistics substrate, strengthening the group’s stronghold in Northern Syria, from where the gathering of belittling was completed.
Turkey affects post-war Syria as an opportunity to create a billion and reconstruction, as well as extended energy and defense projects. There’s a conversation Turkey build a military base in Syria Train and renew the abilities of the Syrian army. This further increases Turkey’s influence through Syria and can cause tensions with Israel, which Ankara Attacks regularly In Turkish and international media. Finally, it also hopes that some of the million Syrian refugees of Turkice will return home, because their presence abroad caused domestic tensions and falls by the popularity of Erdogan.
Turkey uses its strategic position to claim as a regional heavy and transit hub
Turkey also They walk through the Tidr between NATO, Russia and Ukraine. Istanbul host Russia-Ukraine Peace Negotiations once again in May and July 2025. years. Turkey is positioned as pro-Ukraine providing military support and closure of anxious expression by the Russian Navy, while it is not anti-Russian. Ankara did not join the sanctions against the Kremlin and maintains diplomatic bonds opened with both countries. While his complex relations with Russia property towards Erdogan, Turkey’s positioning as a unique intermediary in this conflict, makes other NATO members to see it as an unreliable partner.
Russia’s traditional influence has also shrunk in the Caucasus, and Ankara also fulfills that power supply vacuum. Although it was a strong ally of Azerbaijan, Normalization of relations with Armen is on the table now. After the decades of closed borders, Nikol Pashinian, Armenian Prime Minister, made history, which is an Armenian leader to make The first official visit to Turkey From Armenian independence. Ankara is even Trying to play the role of an intermediary Between two neighbors due to the peace treaty that would end the conflict of nagorno-carabac.
This mediation and normalization could, in turn too bend A way for a pipeline that brings Azerbaijani gas to Europe through Armenia and Turkey, through EngaZur Corridor now known as Trump route for peace and prosperity. This would break the arms of Armenia from key transit routes, decreased reliance on Russia and that Turkey is setting up as a hub in energy transit. Currently, the southern gas corridor (including TANAP) already conveys Azerbaijani gas through Georgia to Turkey and Europe, but bypassing Armenia. However, Corridor Zangezur would offer a complementary route that could mean further expansion of the Armenian economy, his regional transit role and greater strategic depth in the Caucasus for Ankara.
The role of Turkey in the transport center provides a significant impact in the region and beyond, with several key oil and gas pipelines that pass through the country.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
And in the end, Ankara submitted a proposal In Iraq to renew the agreement through the Kirkuk-Ceihan oil pipeline, which is not operational since 2023. years due to political and financial disputes. The arbitral court ruled in 2023. years that Ankara must pay $ 1.5 billion damage to Baghdad Illegal oil export From the Regional Regional Government of Iraq during 2014 to 2018. years. The dispute was created after Turkey has loaded Iraqi crude oil on Tanker on Turkish Luka Ceihana on the instructions of the Turkish Regional Government 1973 Pipeline with Iraq.
Kirkuk-Ceihan pipeline is not operational from 2023. years, as political and financial disputes are part of its reactivation. It led Ankara to seek alternative traffic corridors, such as a development trip, bypassing the region.
Reuters
While Baghdad aimed to control the export of oil central, erbil, the capital of Kurdistan, is focused on achieving economic and political autonomy. Negotiations between Baghdad, the regional government of Iraqi Kurdistan and independent oil producers did not result in the Conditions Agreement, additional disposal of pipeline reactivation. However, Ankara now has even more ambitions, as Development road The project, the main hallway for the infrastructure of 17-20 billion dollars connecting the Iraqi port of Basra (on the Persian Gulf) to the border of Turkey, and then further in Europe. It combines highways, railways and plans for pipeline and transmission of electricity. This could be alternatively To the Kirkuk-Ceihan oil pipeline, which connects oil fields in Basra Ceihan, bypassing semi-automatic Iraq completely.
Important but complicated us and NATO ally
While Turkey is a stationary, American ally and a member of NATO, its self-centered and contradictory policies towards Russia, Hamas and Israel often create tensions with Washington. Turkey has never joined the West in the deliberate sanctions in Russia, growing a Top Customer of Russian Crude Oil and an increasingly important destination for Russian natural gas after emphasis Gazprom’s transit dealing in Ukraine. Ankara was also distribution In Russian sanctions of the evasion, exploiting Gazprombank’s unwise status to the channels of billions of American banks in the American bank Ziraat state-owned, which then divided funds to Russian companies to finance Russian effort.
Although Positioning Turkey is pro-Ukraine Erdogan not imposed Sanctions Russia. As a result, Turkey has become a top destination for Moscow energy products and entertainment in the evasion of Russian sanctions. (Photo by Ozan Hair / AFP) (Photo by Ozan Hair / AFP via Getti Images)
AFP via Getty Images
The Turkish record as a complicated partner is difficult for its connections with Washington. Ankara was similar to chances with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, because it supports Muslim Brotherhood, the global militant Islamist movement, Forbidden in many Muslim countries. Turkey protested When former former Defense Minister Egypt and current president of Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Momamed Brotherhood Mohamed Morse 2013 years, sources are treated with Cairo; While in 2018 years murder Jamal Khashoggi Journalist in Saudi Consulate in Istanbul has worsened tensions with Riyadh. Diverging the position on Libya and Saudi blockade Katar only deepened the pursive split with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, friction that was purity from Arab Spring.
The most famous, while the United States is Israeli Machinery Subtects, Erdogan was one of Jerusalem’s loudest critics, providing shelter and economic Support Top Hamas terrorists, Comparing Netanyahu Hitler in the UN Assemblyand creating diplomatic tensions. Although Erdogan and Netanyahu is so well, they are deeply on the chance over Gaza and Syria.
These tensions, together with the balancing of Turkey between Russia and NATO, make their partnership with the American high situation, cooperative in some theaters like Ukraine and Caucasus, but they are increasingly different in the Middle East. As Ankara follows its own strategic path, often funded and coordinated with Qatar, where it is used approximately 4000 Soldiers, Washington must manage NATO member whose regional ambitions are often understood American allies and strategic priorities.
As traditional energy routes through Russia have become politically unwavering, and Iranian uncomfortable will probably focus more sanctions on their exports of energy, Turkey is positioned to fill the gap. From Syria to the Caucasus, from Iraq in Armenia, Ankara Foreign Policy is increasing for pipelines, corridors, strategic gum points – and support militant Islamist movements.
Energy transit is no longer just a component of its regional role; It is a complement of its geopolitical strategy. As regional allies also transfer global demand for alternative routes to Russia and Iran, Ankara bets that control over infrastructure will translate into a long-term strategic lever and become a multiplier of force.
