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Neil Paine
We led last year this piece About the most favorable flashing spots for new NFL coaches with a warning that “predict the future in the NFL is often exercise in futility.” Well, obviously we obviously didn’t hear our advice, because we were again here another year later for another Circle of Penalty.
Of course, the top-two situations we pointed out – The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles chargers – Keucies 21-13, evidence of their immediate repayment with new coaches Mike MacDonald and Jim Harbaugh. But the best record of all teams received by new coaches belonged to Washington Commander Under the day of Quinn, the situation we admit that we have the future potential that was “less tangible, and therefore less predictable” with Rookie KB Jaiden Daniels. Of course, that was before Daniels went out and probably The largest Rookie Season in the history of the NFLIn the process, he writes Washington in the NFC title game.
We cannot turn off another surprise like that, especially because numerous engagement takes over jobs with any and history of success, or young people still persecute their full potential. For this reason, only, any one can prove transformative than expected. However, history shows that certain general forms tend to separate new coaches that succeed from those who do not.
We have strained to quantify what kind of situation they enter each of the 2025s new coaches. Specifically, we have created a regression model that looks at the quality of the team last season (using a mixture ELO Rating and SRS Rating); The average age of the ROSTOR through misdemeanor, defense and special teams; and age and tracking records of their apartments (using the established level of KB Approximate valueor from aw, per season from the last three years).
For all seven mercenaries – Ben Johnson (Bears), Pete Carroll (Attackers), Mike Vrabel (Patrioti) Liam coen (Jaguars), Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys), Aaron Glenn (Nozzle) and Kellen Moore (Saints) – We fed numbers in the model to assess the expected victories in the next five seasons.
Of course, each coach will change the franchise path in its way from here. Consider these ranking less as predictions and more like the footage of the foundations they start.
So, which point on the side did he landed on a point on a sucress and that drew a short straw?
Expected 5-year win: 41.1
Home KB: Dak Prescott (9.8 Weighted AV per season; 32 years)
2024 Application: 19. | Insult: 21st | Defense: 30.
2024 Average age: 26.7 (18. The youngest)
Key statistics: Of the 18 NFL teams, which missed Plejofs last season, Dallas had a maximum of a total winning three seasons before that (36).
Fans and analysts may not agree with the choice From Schottenheimer – a longtime coordinator who had never been the main coach before – as a replacement of Mike McCarthi. But there is no doubt that he enters a situation with a mature with possibilities. Dallas went 7-10 in 2024. years, even in the nightmen season with Prescott Prescott aside more than half of the schedule. Plus, they just removed the season of 12-5 campaigns In which in the fifth defense ranked and led a league in scoring, breaking 500 points for just that The second time in the history of the franchise. Much depends on the availability of the ultimate superior talent, which is in such an in question in question from the factors that range from injuries (Prescott) for contractual disputes (Micah Parson). However, Schottenheimer inherited the team with proven records for victory in Ballgames, and that has the potential for the playmies to be re-performed immediately.
Expected 5-year win: 40.7
Home KB: Caleb Williams (9.0 weighted aw per season; 19 years)
2024 Application: 24. | Insult: 29. | Defense: 9.
2024 Average age: 26.4 (10. The youngest)
Key statistics: From 12 years last year, Williams is out Best Rookie Season by Bear Kb Everoverlooking the previous score of 8 Jim McMahon Association (1982) and Mitchell Trubiski (2017).
The excitement is high in the windy town before the season 2025 and with good reason. Johnson was a genius player behind offensive success Detroit Lions Over the past three seasons, they never ranked lower than Pete in scoring and jared Goff led all the quartial information With 13,642 crossing the yard. What must now be doing is Talent Williams who is now behind the improved offensive line, a solid set for grapping a passage (leading DJ Moore) and the defense that was a top-10 SRS last year that will now coordinate Dennis Allen. In addition, bears were at the hotel in league In terms of actual victories in relation to what we would expect from their margin from their point, so it is probably some improvement probably. The formula is still a little conservative, because Chicago had a completely one winning season in the last 12 years, but the ingredients are there that Johnson is successful where it is so many other bear coaches over the years.
Expected 5-year win: 39.5
Home KB: Trevor Lawrence (9.2 weighted aw per season; 26 years)
2024 Application: 26. | Insults: 27. | Defense: 28.
2024 Average age: 25.8 (2. The youngest)
Key statistics: No Jaguars Chief Coach has a winning record with a franchiseIn addition to Tom Caightlin (at 68-60).
The latest product of Sean McVai NFL coaching tree, coen will go beyond helping career rehabilitation Baker Maifield In Tampa Bay to help Lawrence to save his reputation as a generational prospectus in Jacksonville. There are even worse tasks to be assigned, and Lawrence was tied to 16. – Most AV-A by QB ever at age from 23 to 24 Before the unfortunate, Marred Married Marred from 2024. Season. Despite the shine, it disappears a little, its potential is far from the damn. And then the ceiling for changing games in the total level of 2025. years, Travis HunterWhose impact is possible on both sides of the ball almost incomparable in the history of the NFL. You could bet hay against new trainers for Jags from the caouche (see above), but nothing is guaranteed, but Koona has key players who could finally turn a franchise.
Expected 5-year win: 39.2
Home KB: Justin Fields (9.1 Weighted AV per season; 26 years)
2024 Application: 22. | Insult: 23. | Defense: 21
2024 Average age: 27.7 (31. The youngest)
Key statistics: Current Pley-Out Jets of 14 Seasons It is not just The longest active skating in the leagueBut it is also twice as long as the next longest drought (Carolina and Atlanta on seven seasons per piece).
In addition to its summary, which brought lions in the Seventh-Bodish League Defense, Glenn is partly engaged in order to bring culture of toughness and professionalism, in the form of teams was Parcells played in New York. If you squunate, you can see the similarity in what Glenn must work here, from the project project project (fields as Vinny Testaverde) on the open wide receiver (Garrett Wilson Like Keishavn Johnson), multipurpose run back (Breece Hall As Curtis Martin), the starry passes Rusher (Kuinnen Williams Like Mo Lewis) and Pro Bowl Cornerback (SOS Gardner Like I’m Glenn). Okay, okay, so maybe it’s a little stretching – but the point is that Glenn has a turnaround, if not a complete foundation.
Expected 5-year win: 39.0
Home KB: Geno Smith (12.3 Weighted AV per season; 35 years)
2024 Application: 27. | Insults: 26. | Defense: 26.
2024 Average age: 26.4 (9. The youngest)
Key statistics: Carroll ended below .500 only four times in his 18-year NFL coaching career. Raiders ended above .500 only twice in the last 22 years. Something has to give!
Raiders is an interesting case here, because Las Vegas had one of the 10 youngest rosters in the league last season, with All only two of your 13 best players from AV Sitting younger than 30 years – highlighted by a 22-year-old solid end Brock BowerWHO It’s third in NFL with 1,194 entrance yards. Long-term projection models love such young talents, but Signature Raider moves offseason They brought the trainer to convert 74 in 2. weeks and trompores that will cross 35. years before 6. weeks. They both have established records of success – including their work together in 2022-23 – and thus offer Vegas. But the need to find another new Combo Combo before it is later, drag it withdrawn to their projection.
Expected 5-year win: 38.8
Home KB: Drake Maie (6.0 weighted aw per season; 23. year)
2024 Application: 28. | Insult: 30. | Defense: 22.
2024 Average age: 26.4 (8. The youngest)
Key statistics: The new England lost more games in the last five years (51) than in 14 seasons before that (50).
Everyone agreed that Vrabel’s gathering of patriots gave too much sense not to happen. In addition, there will be an infusion of that famous Belichicka’s ethos without nonsense, plus a coach experience that went 54-45 with three playoffs in five years with Tennessee Titans. (And he brought one of the great offensive coordinators in Josh McDanielama.) However, expecting a true revival of the patsians of pats is slightly too early. Maie Transmission Efficiency remains an act in progressAlthough his mobility is It aroused his kbr. The team was one of only seven with an SRS Rating from -1.9 or up on both sides of the ball, which was a sign of how much renovations needed. However, an Offseasone Consumption Locked them in a bunch of large bets right now – the risk when we consider How unpredictable outcomes of outside-season moves can be. All this explains why Patriots would rank lower than their approx.
Expected 5-year win: 38.0
Home KB: Spencer rattler (1.5 weighted aw per season; 25 years)
2024 Application: 25. | Insult: 25. | Defense: 18.
2024 Average age: 27.6 (27. The youngest)
Key statistics: Whether or Tyler Shough Starts in KB, 2025. will have the most altogether for the Basic KB at previous Career Av, because at least Steve Walsh – who had 2 previous AV – 1990. Years.
Discharge from the above situations in what Moore inherited to New Orleans is a steep, reflecting team that has just published his worst 2005. Years, and then lost the beginning of KB Derek Carr. Retired by NFL. (Security Tirann Mathieu They followed him in retirement In July.) What the rest is in the entire renovation, with only Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Alvin’s cessor, Carl Grandirson, From him fertilizes and Brandin Chefs offering proven production from his career or recent hay. U 36, Moore is The youngest main coachers of the league – What are the rows with a long-term schedule for new Orleances to re-compete, if it can withstand losses that will build up in the meantime.
