Withdrawal of American troops from Iraq ‘is quiet before the storm, “Analysts warn

It’s okay to board the plane to start their way home outside Iraq from Al-Asad Air Base Vest capital Baghdad, 1. November 2011. (Photo Ali Al-Saadi / AFP via Getti Images)

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Withdrawal of American troops from Iraqi Ain Al-Asad Airbaz in Bagar and Victoria Base in Baghdad, the deadline in September 2025. It means the first phase of previously agreed two-phase transition, withdrawal from federal provinces. However, this does not mean that all American troops will be out of the country to end the second phase of transition, withdrawing from the autonomous Iraq Region Kurdistan, transferred in September 2026. years.

The recent US pull continued “Good in front of the schedule” to the extent The report was surprised Iraqi military.

In September 2024. year, the US Ministry of Defense announced This would end the anti-Islamic state coalition mission in Iraq to September 2025. As part of a “two-phase transition plan”.

The second phase would see that the United States retain the remaining presence in the autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north to support continuously anti-you are in Syria, where the group still sets a significant threat. This phase would continue at least until 18. September 2026. year, subject to field conditions and obviously, consultations among future Iraq and United States political leaders, “said at the time.

Consequently, it is unclear whether all the remaining American troops will similarly pack and leave the base at the Erbil International Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan until September 2026. years.

“It will probably be pulled and not a complete withdrawal even after the deadline, which is publicly framed as” a lot of withdrawal of American troops, “Mohamed A. Salih, a non-resident event at the External Policy Research Institute, he told me.

Salih believes that it is possible that he will also retire from Erbil next year, but they believe that it will “much depend on domestic policy in the United States, a trump can see completely withdrawal as” realization “of their campaign issue.

“Another important factor is the situation in the region and whether the withdrawal will help ensure American interests better or not,” he said.

Joel Wing, author of authoritative Musings in Iraq blogHe also sees domestic American policy as a significant factor, noted that currently withdrawal could be “reflection” of President Trump “that is not caring” about Iraq in his current term.

“For the first time, he was president, he was stuck in Iraq ‘because of the US invasion for 2003. year and distracting Iran,” his lap said. “This expression seems to have other priorities like tariffs and immigration.”

American President Donald Trump speaks with US Army members during an united trip to Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, 26. December 2018 (Saul Loeb / AFP via Getti Images)

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“The State Department threatened early withdrawal from Iraq if his parliament brings a Hashd account,” he said.

Hashd Bill refers to paramilitary mobilitar mobilization of the State of Iraqi (known as Hashd Al-Shaabi) the law that several political fractions of supporting Iranian support are, but they are contradicted. The Trump Administration has warned that the proposed law In its current form, “institutionalized Iranian influence and armed terrorist groups undermining the sovereignty of Iraq.”

The Iraqi government withdrew the draft law at the end of August in the middle of American withdrawal, with Iraqi officials stating both External American pressure and internal disagreements.

“Otherwise, Washington seems to be dedicated to the timeline,” Wing said. “At the same time, I read that coaches and counselors are not included in the drawing plan, so some American troops will remain beside the date of the withdrawal.”

Lavk Ghafuri, Iraqi political analyst, believes that the current withdrawal is only “quiet in front of the storm.”

“Iraq remains the last stronghold in the region that still serves as a base for Iranian groups,” Ghafuri told me. “Washington didn’t act on his retreat until Baghdad clearly gave him Trump administration to not be passed by the law Hashd Al-Shaabi – something Sam Shiite Shiite eventually left Shiite Shiite.”

Regarding the withdrawal in the late August, the wing believes that American troops only remained faster than Iraqis expected.

“They were surprised, and some parliamentarians took care of the security situation,” he said. “Again, it could only show that Trump administration wants from Iraq this time this time.”

Salih noticed that evening August Slivendovn “The process that started”, he also pointed out that “people in knowledge” say that there is preferred for “some long-term American military presence” in Iraq in Iraq.

“It will depend on different factors, including the Iraqi government that at least some of these troops remain in some capacity, especially in combating, as well as regional movements and domestic politics,” he said.

Salih also pointed out that preparation for several attacks by Iran-supported elements “was always great considerations” for American decision makers.

“It’s one of the key sources of Iran at the US in Iraq and the wider region,” he said. “However, we will have to wait whether Pro-Iran Iraqi Militia will actually hit goals if a new round of Iran-Israel.”

On the other hand, the wing is skeptical that now “really worries” everything about the PMF attacks.

“Many of the drones were down. The rockets are not correct,” he said. “They are a majority, not realistic threats and are intended as a message from these fractions, not really trying to harm the damage because it will know that it will bring American retaliation.”

Different PMF Flosa under the support of Iran, under the auspices of self-stylized Islamic resistance of Iraq, launched several drones and rocket attacks in Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan and Syria after the start of the current Israeli war in Gaza. These attacks expressed in October 2023. in October 2023. in October 2023. years. These attacks have expressed in October 2023. in October 2023. years. Iraq and Syria in February 2024. In retaliation for the fatal drone attack on the American base in Jordan on the Syrian border. In addition, these factions did not launch significant attacks during the newer 12 day Israeli air campaign against Iran in June.

Wing does not believe that the complete withdrawal of the United States will necessarily lead to the rise of violent groups like the infamous Islamic state. The Militant Group took over the large Iraq rails two and a half years after the last complete withdrawal of the United States in 2011. At the end of the Iraqi War.

“Islamic State is dead for all intents and purposes in Iraq,” he said. “Failed to renew their workforce and networks, which denied this opportunity to implement attacks.”

The wing concluded by identifying Iraqi Kurdistan as a “most likely place for any stay behind American forces”, because the Kurds generally more American and greet the presence as a “guarantee against any use of force against them” from Baghdad.

Interesting that the US military has Plans to expand the number of helicopter pads At Erbil airport, in another possible indication to plan to keep at least some forces last September 2026. Years.

Salih and Ghafuri are pessimistic in terms of outcomes of any potential complete withdrawal. Both analysts predict the Similar Scratches and even worse than the last withdrawal in 2011. years.

It’s okay to board the plane to start their journey home outside Iraq from Al-Asad Air Base Western capital, Baghdad, 1. November 2011. (Photo Ali Al-Saadi / AFP via Getti Images)

AFP via Getty Images

“Complete withdrawal could prove more harmful from some people in Baghdad or Washington, at this point can be willing to admit at this point,” Salih said.

“We have seen the consequences of complete withdrawal in 2011. year, which led to the rise of the Islamic State. So, we hope that this lesson is learned,” he said. “Iraq needs support to us to oppose the threat of the Islamic State whose attacks in Syria picked up, slowly but all the time.”

Ghafuri believes that Baghdad is now subjected to repetition of errors that led to withdrawal in 2011. years.

“In essence, Iraqis chose to match the request of Washington (to withdraw the PMF law) in exchange for the withdrawal of the American troop – especially with the parliamentary elections in November, said.

“In this regard, the coordination framework provided a political achievement similar to that (Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri in 2011. years, when President Obama pulled US troops and Maliki was at a great hero and a joint community and a joint community.”

In the Ghafury point, Iraq today faces more “more dangerous reality” than in 2011. years.

“In the Western border there is Sunny-Rule Syria – Power Baghdad cannot ignore,” he said. “That regime bits sectarian extremist elements, ready to destabilize Shiite Iraq if given the opportunity.”

Completely withdrawal of the American troop would also inadvertently used neighboring Iran at the critical place of switching to Tehran.

“However, the most critical question is that the American withdrawal will now be handled the Iran’s perfect occasion to re-reassure again,” Ghafuri said. “Tehran, beaten and impaired, could use Iraq’s resources and financial system as a living line to restore his military capacity and regional impact.”

“This risk cannot be underestimated: Iraq could become a motorcycle authorizing Iran wealth.”