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The internal team team was developed and a sports line protection model was launched. All Tiki can also find the content of our teams Our blogwhich has all our personal best bets for free. Our Nfl The model simulates every game thousands of times and has executed greatly on top scotted widespread, total and coins for money, 72-47, 60.5% (+18.5 units) in Betting on NFL In the past three seasons.
Our model is different from most. We are not trying to forecast who will cover. Over two decades, we have Models of engineering engineering crops The resulting 85-90% of our projections are practically identical to the lines of players (main markets and props). When Top sports books“Lines are different from ours, we know that they are likely to manipulate the line to create a monetary value or minimize the risk. And more often than not, bet the statistical sound is a better side.
Using the Power Rang Betting Model
In its projection 1 on a sports lineThere are only three good values of spread or money line. This is a strong indicator that in the entire ‘mouse of the opinion of our model 32 NFL team in accordance with the consensus of the team. To create our power ranking, we transfer our model step further. We simulate every team in every other team on a neutral field based on the list that would have in time Super Bowl. SIM VIN% Below is the average percentage simulations, each team won as opposed to another 31 teams.
This allows us to rank teams objectively without bias that the schedule power can have when designing the winning, playoffs% and chances of Super Bowl. SOS (schedule power) is based on opponents of every team of the average SIM conquer% and Bears They have the hardest.
My purpose is not to strengthen my biased opinions – it is to help identify good betting values. If we are 95% aligned with the votes in how good teams are all the same, we can identify lines and odds that do not reflect what in the vega actually thinks.
Conquest accounts Super Bowl +750 (Fanduel)
GAP power rankings between no. 2 Baltimore and no. 3 Buffalo is much bigger than the gap between Bivola and Detroit, but Buffalo has a higher super boots% of Baltimore. Why? They play ravens at home. They also play every other solid team at home (Chiefs, BUCs, Bengals, Eagles) and they are the only team in their division with the winning overall line above .500.
This results in Buffaloom A> 50% favorite for that AFC one seed. Having a 100% chance of going to a divisional wheel as opposed to maybe 70% chance of seed # 2 bend the buffalo on top in AFC forecast.
Packers to win NFC North +260 (Bet365)
Power ranking – and general consensus – they say Detroit is better than Green Bay. + 3.3% lion edges are worth 2 points on the spread. But these are packers who have a higher opportunity to win NFC North at 41.5% (Detroit comes to 33.6%). +260 on bet365 is much better than +225 on Draft. If you fade us, then go to the draft for lions to +160.
Packers that are on +260 imply at 28% chance of winning division (lions to +160 implies 38%). Green Bay not only benefits from third place – benefits from facilitating the district placed bears, because Green Bay plays in Arizona instead of San Francisco (who ended the fourth in the NFC).
Chiefs under 11.5 Vins -120 (Drawts)
Drafts Our worst has our worst price for packages to win division, but they offer the best for these chiefs below.
The chiefs opened AS -2.5 Favorites vs Chargers at 1. The week (neutral field) and our model line has a game practically the same on KC -2. Denver’s victory The total line is high as -140 O9.5, chargers are as -120 O9.5, and the attackers are strong Sokolo O6.5.
The fact that our projected victories within the opponents of the KC and KC on Sunday in 1. weeks, so harmonized with the chance, we convince our “opinion of bosses” to be due to their differential differential and not win every party. In the Sims KC, it won 12+ only 24.4% of the time, so we would charge -300 for a great value -120 great value.
Buccaneers will get NFC South -105 (Fanduel)
Hard Rock offers the best price on our board on +100, many of you may not be able to use it because of your geographical location. Fanduel offers practically the same line at -105. Unlike other best bets, which are more about lines that are not properly placed, this is really about our belief in the Tampa Bay in the rest of the division.
Our strongest void against spreading week 1 is Tampa Bai -1.5 in Altanti, with BUCS covering 65% simulations. You have to love that Tampa Bai is right basically good or better on the road than at home for two straight seasons.
2024: Average rating of 31 to 23 on the road (5-3 are, 5-3 ATS); 28-23 at home (5-5 are both ATS)
2023: Average grade 23-22 On the road (5-5 are, 8-2 ATS), 19-16 at home (5-4 Su, 4-5 ATS)
Tampa Bai had a differential advantage of +151 a point above no. 2 Atlanta I +310 over no. 3 Carolina (over 18 per game). It’s too much gap for Michael Penic in 2 and Brice Young at 3. years to close Baker Maifield. Remember, even if these two young KBs are great, their defense still stinks. Atlanta allowed almost 25 points per game and Carolina has allowed more than 35 per game while playing a relatively soft schedule.
New Orleans Saints over 4.5 Vins-125 (Fanduel)
Although there is value of value on the new orleans that make playoffs to +850 (Bet365) cannot and I will not recommend betting on the worst team in football to play. The model has them as only +3.5 insufficient in the home compared to Arizona, and all the entirety of the third is the easiest schedule in the league. It would be much easier if they have to play.
But the fact is that the saints -60 points differential last season was much better than Caroline or other last placed teams like giants (-142), attackers (-125) and brown (-175). If Derek Carr and Rashha 5 He didn’t get hurt, maybe that would be a 28 PPG team. They poured 45.5 in the first two games.
The defense is not awful, they can still start the ball Alvin’s cessor and have undercated VR trio with Chris Olave, Brandin Chefs and shaheed. If Tyler Shough It can be a game manager (64% CMP, 6.9 IPA, 17 TD and 10 INT) saints could win seven or eight games.
They are designed to have at least 40% chance (dogs or better 3.5 points) in all only five games. 1-4 The record in these games plus 4-9 records in the Vinual Games is all it takes.
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These are just part of our best bets of all free on our new blog. We will add more futures while we approach cowboys-orles beginnings, as well as providing our best bets for each NFL game.
