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The sign with the company logo is located outside the Seat eli Lilli in Indianapolis, Indiana, 17. Marta 2024. years.
Scott Olson | Getti images
Eli LillyStocks are still recovering after a pharmacy Published court data Earlier this month on his careful view obesity pill It underlined Wall Street.
In a key trial of late stage, Eli Lilli’s Pill, Orforglin, caused less weight loss and had more side effects than what analysts expected. The effectiveness of the pill seemed to enter something under the one NEW NORDISKOperation oral semagutid, which showed strong data in a special study.
Eli Lilly shares fell around 13% on the day the test results were released, although they have about 12% since then.
But some analysts say Eli Lilli’s day pill, if approved, could still be a sustainable competitor in weight loss drugs – even if there is likely to enter the market. It is a very lucrative area that is more earlier options that could facilitate the bid shortages and access to obstacles created by the premical weekly injections that are currently dominated.
Analysts recorded that Eli Lilli’s pill could have several benefits in relation to the daily oral version of the lean skinny skinny skinny spot, which is on the way to become First alternative without needle In order for obesity to win the authorization in the United States later this year. Eli Lilli hopes Start your tablet Globally “this time it is next year,” said David Ricks, in CNBC, in the beginning of August.
Both drugs act by imitating hormone hoses called GLP-1 to combat appetite and regulate blood sugar. But while the pill is a new Nordisk peptide drug, Orforgripron is a small molecule medicine.
It means Eli Lilli’s tablet easier to absorb lightly in the body and does not require nutritional restrictions like New Nordisc. Orforgripon will also be easier to produce on a scale, which is crucial as demand for shortcut injections and injection diabetes.
No companies played prices for their tablet, but some analysts said that Drug Eli Lilli could potentially have a lower price from the new Nordisk pill. It would be a significant edge, the more health plans in the US still do not cover the treatment of obesity.
“It’s a little comparison of apples and oranges, because the new Nordisk could have difficulty manufacturing products, given the high costs and requirements for the production of oral semagutid,” Leerink partners said David Risinger.
“While Lilly plans to cover the world with Orfoglopronon, and it will very quickly create dramatically more sales,” he continued. “It can start globally in an extraordinary way with lower prices and regardless of food intake.”
Goldman Sachs Analysts seem to agree, based on the note in August. They predict daily oral pills reduced 24% stake – or about 22 billion dollars – a global weight loss market in 2030. years, which they expect to be worth $ 95 billion.
Goldman Analysts said to expect Eli Lilli’s pill to have 60% stake – or approximately $ 13.6 billion – the daily oral segment of the market 2030. Years. They expect oral semaglutid new Nordisk to have a 14% share of $ 4 billion. The remaining 19% of the slices will go to other emerging tablets, analysts said.
Race to develop more suitable obesities of tablets is full, such as companies like Pfizer they had to cut Previous candidates and bring new new ones. New Nordisk and Eli Lilly also explore other experimental oral medication, along with slate other companies such as Viking Therapeutics, Structure therapeutics, AstraZeneca and Roche.
In the statement, the new Nordisk CEO Mike Doustar said “We strongly believe in the efficiency of” oral drugs. The Danish company added that it will be “laserly oriented on this product without restrictions in the United States”
Dr. Mihail “Misha” Zilbermint, the director of the Endocrine Hospitalist on Johns Hopkins, said it was hard to slow down the winner between Eli Lilly and the new Nordisk, how to take care of their pills and whether they will cover them.
“I think both of the drugs will be Gamechangers,” he said. “When it comes to which company will win the game – the price is the biggest question.”
Comparisons of weight loss, comparisons on the side of the effect
It is difficult to compare the results of separate clinical trials directly, especially as investors, waited for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk releases complete data from their phase of three studies.
Eli Lilly is the trial of attini-1, also followed 3,000 patients, while studying Novo Nordisk’s Oasis 4 assessed a a much smaller group Approximately 300. There are currently no studies that are not directly comparing two drugs, the new Nordisk spokesman said.
But oral semaglutid is new Nordisk causes a higher level of weight loss from Eli Lilli based on available data, the BMO capital market analyst Evan Seigerman.
At the trial, the largest dose of Pill Lilly Pills helped patients lose 12.4% of body weight in 72 weeks on average. The loss of pill of tablets was 11.2% when he analyzed all patients regardless of discontinuation.
Wall Street hoped Eli Lilli’s pill created a loss of weight of about 15%, the same level as the injection of the skinny new Nordisk in the injection of skinny. Semagutid is an active ingredient in Vegova and its diabetes by colleague Ozempić.
The new Nordisk flags flutter outside its Office in Bagsvaerd, on the outskirts of Copenhagen, Denmark, 14. July 2025.
Tom Little | Reuters
Meanwhile, the 25-milligram of oral semaglutida Novo Nordisk helped patients lose up to 16.6% of their weight, according to the results of the trial presented at the medical conference in 2024. Years. This weight loss was 13.6% when the company analyzed all patients.
A spokesman New Nordisk added that 20% weight loss was observed in almost one third of patients at trial.
However, slightly lower efficiency Eli Lilly pills may not be significant enough to deter patients to take it.
“For many patients, 12% are really a large number,” Seigerman said. “It’s definitely there market” for Orforglon.
On the notes earlier this month, America’s bank analysts shared similar feelings.
“Yes, the weight of a pound is short, but ask 100 prescribers whether this new data will make a difference, and our beliefs are the vast majority,” not very “, referring to the ELI Lily trial information.
Some investors raised concerns about side effects and interruption rates at the eli Lilli trial. But Seigerman said the drug tolerance data – as good patients tolerated – they seem to be relatively in line with those tarmacy semagutid Novo Nordisk.
About 10.3% of patients who took the largest dose of Eli Lilli’s tablets – 36 milligrams – discontinued treatment due to side effects, compared to about 2.6% of those who took placebo.
These side effects were mostly gastrointestinal, like nausea and vomiting and mild to moderate severity. It was estimated that 24% of those who took the greatest dose of Eli Lilli tablets reported vomiting, while 33.7% had nausea.
Leerinkov Risinger said he was looking to see how insistently these gastrointestinal issues were used to Eli Lilly represent the full data.
The side effects at the trial on the Pill of Novo Nordisks were mainly related to the gastrointestinal: 30.9% of those who took orally semagutid reported vomiting and 46.6% reported to nausea, according to the results of the trial.
Johns Hopkins’ Zilbermint said he was hard to decide which has a better security profile and tolerance based on available data.
Meanwhile, Seigerman pointed to a different factor “that will also be important”: food requirements.
Food requirements, production, price
Unlike Eli Lilli’s pills, patients must enter oral semaglutid new Nordisk in the morning on an empty stomach with no more than four ounces of ordinary water. They were abandoned to wait 30 minutes before eating, drinking or taking other oral medication.
Seigerman said it could be an obstacle for some patients.
For example, “If you are a parent with children and you have to take this medicine and wait half an hour before you drink coffee, especially if you have to take it every day,” he said. “I try to think about the actual use of these drugs in this market. It will be important.”
Leerinkov Risinger said oral semaglutid will also be “extremely expensive to produce” because it is a peptide medicine, and “probably will be to cost more than orforlipgrain”.
The new Nordisk spokesman said that the tablet would be mainly in the United States, and the company is excited about the potential of the pill “provides millions of Americans living with obesity.”
“There are currently all typical startup activities (for tablet) fully in the process of momentum,” said spokesman. They added that in the past decade, the company has invested $ 24 billion now to expand production and fuel development and fuel development. This includes investments aimed at increasing the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients and capacities for final phases of production and for current and future and injected oral products.
Small molecules are chemically simpler and easier to produce on a scale, making them generally cheaper for companies to formulate. But it is still unclear how Eli Lilli will appreciate or price or.
During the approach of earnings in August, Ricks Eli Lilly said the prices will be based on values or value entries, given the savings of health care and comorbidities that can deal with.
In the notes earlier this month, the Analysts of Goldman Sachs said that the tablet “at the price of parity”, the active ingredient in the field of Zepbuld company, and a list of $ 1,000 in a month on which listing for a monthly supplies.
“They should be cheaper than injections because they are easier to produce. But that doesn’t mean it will be cheaper,” said Johns Hopkins Zilbermint. “We just don’t know – for example, we don’t know how much research and development passed.”
Seigerman said the commercialization strategies would be crucial when the tablets compete on the market.
Questioned whether the new Nordisk would rely in the agreement recently struck CVSPharmacy Manager, Milometer. Under the agreement, Palomirk began the priorities of the backhoe Novi Nordisk on its standard forms 1. July, making that weekly injection of preferred GLP-1 drug for obesity on obesity.
But it is unclear whether oral semagutid could get a similar preferential status.
Seigerman also questioned whether Eli Lilly would offer Orforglipron through his pharmacy of immediate consumers, Lillidirect. What offers landfall insurance and managers, allowing patients to buy zepbound directly and some of the other drugs of Eli Lilli from the company.
Seigerman said he expects “a lot of shades in a campaign in the market on the market for these drugs,” adding “it will be important.”
Other competitors stand behind
Other obesities Pills are in the earlier stages of development, which makes them hard to compare them with medications from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk without longer and higher trials.
But so far, some experts think they are fading in comparison.
For example, Viking Therapy on Tuesday Judicial data with medium care released that are disappointed Investors, send their supplies as much as 40%.
Jared Holz, the Health Capital Strategy Mizuho, said Tuesday to e-mail that the results of the Viking drug “look inferior” to those Eli Lilli’s pills “on almost all metrics.”
Viking’s once everyday pill helped patients lose up to 12.2% of their weight for about three months, without a plateau, which means that patients could lose even more in a long-term study.
Holz pointed to a high rate of patients who for any reason interrupted Viking’s medicine for 13 weeks, which was about 28%. Meanwhile, about a quarter of the people, the Eli Lilli Pill, Orfogrepron, for any reason during 72 weeks, interrupted.
It’s “much longer and that’s why (Lilli) looks a lot better head,” Holz said.
